MS 4-3: Prediction Models for Ageing/Deterioration

Markus Petschacher, PEC - Petschacher Consulting ZT-GmbH, Feldkirchen, Austria

Markus Petschacher    


The current development in ageing prediction follows two directions, the deterministic and the stochastic approaches. This results in formulating an ageing model to describe the structural behaviour in the future.

A big issue is to involve investments in the models which put the structure in a better condition – this is the traditional renewal theory – and to find an optimal strategy for the owners or users in this way.

The Mini Symposium will focus on models in that field applicable for stakeholders and giving them the opportunity to deal with different maintenance policies considering aspects like penalty payments and traffic guidance costs.


Selective maintenance planning based on a Markovian approach
N. Basso, E. Garavaglia, L. Sgambi

Analytical prediction model for concrete cover cracking due to reinforcement corrosion
E. Bohner, H. Müller

Numerical analysis of degradation processes in reinforced concrete during life-cycle
F. Cramer, U. Kowalsky, D. Dinkler

Optimal next inspection time for bridges based on corrosion deterioration
D. De Leon, C. González-Pérez, V. Bisadi, P. Gardoni, M. Head, S. Hurlebaus

Modelling of the saturation behaviour of hardened cement paste during freezing and thawing action
Z. Djuric, M. Haist, H. Müller, E. Hardy

Seismic intensity parameters as damage potential descriptors for life-cycle analysis of buildings
A. Elenas, A. Liolios, L. Vasiliadis, M. Favvata, A. Liolios, P. Spyridis

Bridge maintenance education system based on E-learning
T. Koyama, K. Ishibashi, K. Nakatsu, H. Furuta

Structural, economic and environmental performance of fibre reinforced wood profiles vs. solutions made of steel and concrete
C. Manthey, E. Guenther, A. Heiduschke, P. Haller

Stochastic prediction model of degrading process for tunnel management system
O. Maruyama, A. Sutoh, H. Tanaka, T. Satoh

Remaining life prediction of an aged bridge based on field inspections
A. Miyamoto

Gamma processes for the degradation analysis of engineering structures
A. Strauss, H. Abebe Demissie, K. Bergmeister

Bridge condition assessment based on long-term strain and vehicle monitoring
L. Sun, S. Sun

A consideration on the deterioration of tunnel lining based on actual inspection data
A. Sutoh, O. Maruyama, T. Sato, H. Nishi

Reliability of deterioration prediction with Markov model for mooring facilities
H. Yokota, K. Furuya, K. Hashimoto, S. Hanada